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A missed opportunity - Luxon could have persuaded him to vote National, but instead this man remains on the fence.
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That's Brian Tamaki's mob. A bunch of them harassed Hipkins and co at the Otara markets a couple weeks back.
It's because of people like Tamaki's mob that politicians will all employ private security detail and will rarely make public appearances. Once upon a time you'd be able to see Piggy Muldoon walking along Takapuna beach with his shirt off walking his doggo, or David Lange getting drunk AF at Onehunga Mangere football club. Shit, i even saw Don Brash in Mission Bay talking to randoms without getting accosted at the height of his Orewa speech. |
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Roy Morgan poll out this morning. Key results: if election were held today, Nat+ACTwould have a clear majority; Labour would get hammered and drop from 65 seats to 30.
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It's interesting how many ACT MPs are quailing at the prospect of actually being in government.
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Labour reaction: we're gonna have to strawman the shit out of this
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...GQS7A5WIWMLMA/ |
ACT has lost another candidate just weeks out from the election
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Not surprising. ACT is basically just David Seymour saying ridiculous shit to stay in the news cycle and race baiting uninformed pakeha males into voting for the boomer party.
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Labours only hope is for both the Warriors and ABs come out on top in the NRL & RWC.
That will give a country and endorphin boost that would benefit the current government. Unfortunately after yesterday's 2 performances, even that is not looking good for labour |
I swear we've got some deal with the devil going on with the All Blacks.
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If Luxon has to face any more pressure like this morning's interview, I gotta wonder if he doesn't go the same way as Muller before the election.
National's gotta be working hard to minimise any similar scenarios. |
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When they finally got pushed over the edge, it seems that Willis has said the costings will come out after the updated treasury figures tomorrow. Which doesn't make sense. It should have been costed on what they knew and if the shit has hit the fan they can adjust it. But I believe they will use these updated figures to blame it all back on Labour rather than their numbers not adding up |
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He's been coasting off of being the opposition the entire time he's been leading the party. Has no idea what it means to be in charge and responsible, and answerable to something other than to the board of an airline.
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The 2023 General Election thread
enmergenation commenceth
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New Roy Morgan poll results out (scraped from KB):
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I think polls are part of the process of limiting the impact voters can have on elections. The snap image misrepresents and disrupts the more organic process of making a decision.
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If it was relatively unknown, that would surely create greater uncertainty right up to the day. And this is assuming that the parties would still do there internal polling so they know the mood of the people. What I think these polls don't clearly show, is the amount of undecided voters, and if 2/3s of them feel a particular direction, it could have a big affect on the outcome |
I don't think we have any certainty right now. All we know is that change is possible.
I guess polls are just one tool of manipulation. It's fascinating watching clumsy NZ Freedom's attempts to manipulate social media with vote dumping, that they've obviously paid for. Big money is not so clumsy. I wonder at all the insight that exists into how polls and their timing shift or consolidate public opinion, the interplay of polls with policy announcements, and so on. Insight that surely gets leveraged to its full extent by those who can. There's certainly research on the subject: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs...31870205400106 Quote:
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Polls create massive bias. They can be used to easily manipulate.
If I'm an undecided voter, and then see the public opinion of one party/leader is doing 10 points worse and one is doing 10 points better, that could be all I need. Heck I'm seeing the minor parties in the polls doing really well, and it wouldn't be far fetched to think "It looks like it's not just a two horse race, maybe some real change will happen if I vote for the minor parties too" |
Luxon has the right idea fudging the specifics about any policies. He knows that's not how they're winning the election.
Spending that bankroll is. |
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But which way, if you support the leader, do you then go, oh well, he's won, Im not voting. Or maybe that you can see other people like him so that helps cement your positiion, or maybe you support the leader and decide that they're a goner so theres not point, or maybe you realise they need help so you will make sure you vote. So which way is it biasing? Or what about the other smaller parties? Every election you here the "if I vote for Party X, then it is a wasted vote", which means that person is not even voting for the party they want. Would the ability to see that the party may get in and its not a wasted vote help them |
You and I might be stumped how all that plays out. You can be sure those with everything to gain aren't.
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Hey has anyone seen Jacinda Ardern lately? I woulda thought she'd be bringing her star power to the Labour campaign.
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Vote Compass revealed (again) that TOP were going to be the party I'd vote for .... however I've since been told they've aligned with Tamaki's mob of morons? Can anyone confirm? I'm slightly out of touch with the finer points of NZ politics lately.
After using the weighting questions to fine tune the results, NZF was top of the list of parties with which I would align :eek: Never thought I'd see the day. |
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Bunch of fucking morons. No wonder trust in the govt is down when you've got two fuckwits going for the top job
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But you are right, they will want to be seen as separate to Ardern. Next election, I bet she will be back in there campaigning, similar to what Clark does |
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Well it is a sensible policy :)
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And what's suggested to be repealed never was. I kinda appreciate the own goal tho. The usual allowing ourselves to be glamoured by tough on druggies rhetoric, oops, no more relief from our genuine symptoms. lolz
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I think National+ACT+NZF nightmare coalition might be just what NZ needs.
Might send us back to something more sane, similar to how the current US Republican absurdity looks to push the country firmly in the direction of the Democrats. |
^^^ This is going to hurt a lot. But sometimes, as Winston so eloquently put it, we need grown-ups who keep their trousers on. No doubt the Labour policies post pandemic have been seen to be a bit free with the spending - perhaps what is needed is tight fiscal policy and tough business focused decisions to straighten things up. Life is a rollercoaster baby.
But yeah, that is going to come at a cost, and history would indicate that price will be paid by the weakest who are ill equipped to handle it. Also, ramraids and 501s. I can remember when that number used to refer to jeans and not cosplay nerds. Then Aussie changed it. Still seems to refer to a fringe subculture that like to dress up - and is becoming alarmingly mainstream. |
According to RNZ National have said they plan ditch to policing by consent?
What the fuck is up with that? They're planning to introduce US style policing? I suppose the timing is right, there can't be a time when fewer people understood what the Peelian principles are. |
Alex Holland:
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