Polls Nov 2011
 

Herald:

* wtf

What? I thought Polls good for Left.

Monthly comparison for the Herald one:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10763639

One's latest as well:
http://tvnz.co.nz/election-2011/nati...-shows-4502058

There's no wtf there. Act voters need somewhere to go and they'll be trying out Conservative. Colin Craig comes across as much more reasonable than most Act members, hasn't had time yet to develop any bad stigma. He has some daft policies though.

polls polls bloody polls

Labour gains ground in latest poll - http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...in-latest-poll

Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll - http://www.3news.co.nz/Gap-closes-be...2/Default.aspx

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-October-polls

All sorts of crazy shit going on in the latest herald digipoll - Poll shock as Nats drop under 50%

NZfirst
/facepalm


I blame you MMP!

I very much doubt that any of these surveys are based upon a properly stratified sample of NZ. The saving grace however is that those least well represented are exactly those who are least likely to vote too.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4719/

September 20 - October 3, 2010 N 49.5 L 36.5
October 24 - November 6, 2011 N 53 L 26

Bit of a long bumpy slide on the old Roy.

lets not forget the rest of that coin.

Do political polls in NZ have the same problem as American ones

That being they're almost entirely based on calling landlines, which people under 35 disproportionately don't have anymore and elderly people disproportionately still do

Lol MMP! So proportional! Don't worry, Phil Goff is gonna fix things so that none of these parties can ever form a government with National. PROPORTIONAL!

Yep.

not if my electorate vote counts for anything....

One News:

Labour hits 10 year low in poll

National: down 1 point to 53%
Labour: down 2 points to 26%
Greens: up 4 points to 13%
Winston First: down 0.7 points to 2.2% *
Act: up 0.1 points to 1.6%
Maori Party: 1.6%
Conservative party: 1.4%
Mana: 1.3%
United Future: 0.3%

Preferred PM
Key 53%
Goff 13%


* THE FUCK? That's thousands of people!

Labour hits ten year low in latest poll (TV One)
NZ First climb polls on back of teapot tapes (tv3)

edit: after Ab lol

One News: "tea tape has had no impact on polls!"
3 News: "tea tape has impacted on polls!"

Public: "STFU about the fucking tea tape and tell us something about policy"

I'd have thought ACT supporters would be going to Libertarianz since they're also "right wing" economically rather than socially. Conservative party seems more like Republicans (?) which I didn't think ACT were...

Disappointed that Greens are polling well but that's to be expected as lefties defect from Labour. Very surprised that Conservative are polling as well as they are.* Right wingers who find National too centrist for them and disillusioned with Act are splitting the vote I guess... might they be capable of getting an MP?


* I should clarify that: I'm surprised they poll that well for a new party.

Who has even heard of Libertarianz? Colin Craig is doing a much better job of getting publicity for his party and the polls show it.

Don't forget that ACT has long lost its libertarian roots. They are really more about "fuck the crims" and social conservatism now and guess what the Conservatives stand for?

Who else wants to want the option of explicitly expressing disapproval of certain parties using their votes?

yeh ccs and cyc you're both right, libertarianz don't even have a candidate in my electorate and there's no way they'd ever get party seats... ::facepalm::

I suppose I am by nature, a 'libertarian' - at least in its idealogical form. If not its practical.

So, I went to the website.

Then I decided I would vote for anyone but those numpty cunts.

Roy Morgan, released today

National (53%, unchanged)
Labour (24.5%, down 1.5%)
Green (13%, up 1%)
Winston First (3%, down 1.5%)
ACT (1.5%, up 0.5%)
United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged)
Maori (3%, up 1%)
Mana (1%, unchanged)

I believe that's the first time Labour's sunk below the 25% mark.

Yep, there's been a party brochure in my local newspaper every week since campaigning began.

Cool story bro.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...efiant-Winston

lol.

(edit for clarity: point = Winston bears striking resemblance to idgaf guy.)

It takes a pretty deluded and pathetic shit to laugh at the thought of Winston Peters holding the balance of power. ANYTHING TO WIN AND ANYTHING FOR POWER!

Awesome. Welcome to the world of the extreme left.

I know, it's fucking hilarious. Stuff running the results of a Horizon poll as if it were news is some funny shit. A self-selected Internet survey where you can answer as many times as you like. SOUNDS LEGIT.

That fact that Winston is polling where he is right now (on legit polls) is scary. Don't people remember Winston holding the country to ransom in the past?

Go Winston!!

As opposed to landline-based polling which skews the age of the sample significantly upwards and therefore rightwards

Or do people find a National party governing alone more scary.

Oh, I should not, that there is no way in hell that I would vote for Peters.

You'd need to have rocks in your head to think that National governing alone would be worse than Winston holding the balance of power.

Or to be the sort of stupid leftie that believes anything which leads to a "win" for their side is automatically a good thing.

Some interesting polling day projections based on linear regressions using all all campaign period polls:
Also Dimpost

Got the conversative flyer yesterday, didn't even realise their candidate for my electorate was Gordon Copeland. So that's where the religious nut element went..